The measurement of forest area and forest area change is being advanced through better coverage and accessibility of remote sensing imagery (Achard et al. In the case of avoided deforestation, emission reductions accounting requires the quantification of forest area, forest area change, and forest carbon stocks. Despite a proliferation of REDD activities, the assessment of emission reductions contains substantial uncertainty (Brown and Lugo 1992, Monni et al. The environmental integrity of REDD requires the generation of real, permanent, and verifiable emission reductions (UNDP 2009). Voluntary carbon markets (VCM) are the main platform through which emission reductions from forestry are currently traded (Diaz et al. A REDD mechanism under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is yet to be defined (Angelsen and McNeill 2012). A Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism can help address this market failure by financially rewarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions from conservation, sustainable management, and forest enhancement activities (Chomitz 2007, Parker et al. Key words: deforestation emission reductions accounting Ethiopia forest carbon stocks REDD uncertainty INTRODUCTIONĭeforestation and forest degradation is driven largely by private incentives, with the benefits of ecosystem services often overlooked. Strong financial incentives exist to improve forest carbon stock estimates in tropical forests, as well as the environmental integrity of REDD projects. Estimated revenues will influence decisions to implement a project or not and may have profound implications for the level of benefit sharing that can be supported. Combining forest carbon stock estimates and uncertainty in voluntary carbon market prices demonstrates the financial impact of uncertainty: potential revenues over the 20-year project ranged between US$9 million and US$185 million. Primary data estimate area-weighted mean forest carbon stock of 195 tC/ha ± 81, and biome-averaged data reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underestimate forest carbon stock in the Bale Mountains by as much as 63% in moist forest and 58% in dry forest. Using a case study in the Bale Mountains in Ethiopia, we exemplify the implications of primary and secondary forest carbon stock estimates on predicted REDD project emission reductions and revenues. Largely stemming from a lack of forest data in developing countries, emission reductions accounting contains substantial uncertainty as a result of forest carbon stock estimates, where the application of biome-averaged data over large forest areas is commonplace. The environmental integrity of a mechanism rewarding Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) depends on appropriate accounting for emission reductions.
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